据海湾新闻网2023年7月6日维也纳报道，接近欧佩克的消息人士称，欧佩克在7月晚些时候发布第一份2024年全球石油需求前景展望报告时，可能会对明年的全球石油需求增长保持乐观看法，增长速度预计将比今年放缓，但仍将高于平均水平。

欧佩克对2024年的预测可能会低于今年预计的每天235万桶或2.4%的增长。由于全球走出疫情，这一增长速度异常之高。

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即便如此，这仍远高于过去10年的年平均水平，也高于IEA的预测，后者曾预计明年全球石油日需求增长将大幅放缓至86万桶。

全球石油需求增长是石油市场可能走强的一个指标，也是欧佩克+政策决策依据的一部分。今年6月，欧佩克宣布将供应限制延长至2024年以支撑市场，原因是对需求疲软的担忧令原油价格承压。

三位欧佩克消息人士表示，尽管2024年的全球石油需求增长可能会放缓，但不会像IEA预测的那样严重，全球石油日需求增长可能会超过100万桶，也可能低于200万桶。

“可以预期，2024年的全球石油日需求增长将远低于2023年。”欧佩克的一位消息人士表示，并补充说，这一数字可能在150万至170万桶之间。

欧佩克预计将在7月13日的月度报告中公布其对2023年的首次需求预测。

“欧佩克将比IEA更乐观。”另一位消息人士在谈到欧佩克对2024年全球石油需求的看法时表示。

在本周的一次会议上，欧佩克成员国的高级官员如国有石油生产巨头沙特阿美首席执行官纳赛尔认为，尽管经济逆风令油价承压，但对全球石油需求前景表示乐观。

纳赛尔说：“亚洲石油需求正在增长。仅亚洲大国在2019年至2023年之间就日增300万桶，印度日增100万桶，因此亚洲石油需求有所增加。”

考虑到经济前景的变化和地缘政治的不确定性，全球石油需求预测者往往不得不进行大幅修正，今年的不确定性包括社交限制措施解除和美国利率上升。

在去年7月发布的首次预测中，欧佩克最初预测今年全球石油日需求增长270万桶，后来将其下调至235万桶。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

OPEC upbeat over 2024 oil demand outlook despite slowdown

OPEC will likely maintain an upbeat view on oil demand growth for next year when it publishes its first outlook later this month, predicting a slowdown from this year but still an above-average increase, sources close to OPEC said.

OPEC’s forecast for 2024 will likely be lower than the growth it expects this year of 2.35 million barrels per day, or 2.4 per cent, an abnormally high rate as the world moved out of the pandemic.

Even so, it would still be well above the annual average of the past decade with the exception of the pandemic years and above predictions by the International Energy Agency which sees a major slowdown in demand growth next year to 860,000 bpd.

Oil demand growth is an indication of likely oil market strength and forms part of the backdrop for policy decisions by OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+. The group in June extended supply curbs into 2024 to support the market as concern about weakening demand pressured prices.

For 2024, three OPEC sources said that while demand growth was likely to show a slowdown it would not be as severe as the IEA predicts and growth will likely be above 1 million bpd and likely below 2 million bpd.

“It can be expected that the increase in oil demand in 2024 will be much lower than 2023,” one of the OPEC sources said, adding that it could be between 1.5 to 1.7 million bpd.

OPEC is expected to publish its first demand forecast for 2023 in its monthly report on July 13.

“It will be more bullish than the IEA,” another source said of OPEC’s 2024 demand view.

Top officials from OPEC countries at a conference this week such as Amin Nasser, CEO of state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco, expressed optimism over the oil demand outlook despite economic headwinds weighing on prices.

“Asia is growing. The big country in Asia alone between 2019 and 2023, 3 million bpd growth, India 1 million bpd growth, so there is a pickup in demand,” he said.

Oil demand forecasters often have to make sizeable revisions given changes in the economic outlook and geopolitical uncertainties, which this year included the lifting of coronavirus lockdowns and rising interest rates of U.S.

OPEC originally forecast demand growth in 2023 of 2.7 million bpd in its first forecast published in July 2022, later revising it down to 2.35 million bpd.

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